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These market prospects (source Boeing) reflect our longterm forecast for air transport.
(Published on June-July 2010 - JEC Magazine #58)
The amazing resilience of the air transport sector is clearly reflected in the forecasts that we have been putting out for the past 45 years. Over the past twenty years, the aviation industry has experienced a number of economic downturns, but has still registered roughly 5% in average annual growth. In our opinion, this growth trend should continue over the next twenty years, given how important it is for travellers and companies to be able to rely on regular and reliable air transportation that is relatively cheap.
New airplanes have significant efficiency and capacity advantages that should keep demand for them heavy. In spite of the recent market conditions, aircraft manufacturers’ backlogs are holding up, thanks to the past record levels. More fuel-efficient aircraft somewhat counterbalance the volatile fuel prices, and the lower emission levels help companies achieve their environmental performance objectives.
The future of air cargo
The trend in the air cargo industry is towards larger, more economic airplanes, so transporting goods by air should stay reasonably affordable. Air cargo transport should grow about 5.4% per year on average, based on global GDP growth and on the need for global industry to rely on international production and on rapid delivery systems.