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Current prospects for the 2009-2028 market

News International-French

26 Feb 2011

These market prospects (source Boeing) reflect our longterm forecast for air transport.

(Published on June-July 2010 - JEC Magazine #58)


Travel values

The amazing resilience of the air transport sector is clearly reflected in the forecasts that we have been putting out for the past 45 years. Over the past twenty years, the aviation industry has experienced a number of economic downturns, but has still registered roughly 5% in average annual growth. In our opinion, this growth trend should continue over the next twenty years, given how important it is for travellers and companies to be able to rely on regular and reliable air transportation that is relatively cheap.


Key indicators for 2008-2028
  Growth rate
Global economy: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 3.1%
Fleet size 3.2%
Number of passengers 4.1%
Passenger traffic, Revenue Passenger-Km (RPK) 4.9%
Cargo traffic, Revenue Tons-Km (RTK) 5.4%


New airplanes

New airplanes have significant efficiency and capacity advantages that should keep demand for them heavy. In spite of the recent market conditions, aircraft manufacturers’ backlogs are holding up, thanks to the past record levels. More fuel-efficient aircraft somewhat counterbalance the volatile fuel prices, and the lower emission levels help companies achieve their environmental performance objectives.



The future of air cargo

The trend in the air cargo industry is towards larger, more economic airplanes, so transporting goods by air should stay reasonably affordable. Air cargo transport should grow about 5.4% per year on average, based on global GDP growth and on the need for global industry to rely on international production and on rapid delivery systems.


Demand by region for 2009 - 2028
  Value (Billions of $) Demand by region for 2009 - 2028 Value (Billions of $)
Asia-Pacific 1,130 Latin America 150
North America 680 CIS 90
Europe 800 Africa 70
Middle East 300 Total 3,220


Airplanes in service, 2008 and 2028
Category 2008 2028
Jumbo jets 870 1,070
Twin-aisle 3,510 8,080
Single-aisle 11,360 24,230
Regional jets 3,060 2,220
Total 18,800 35,600


Freighters deliveries 2009-2028
  2008 2028 Deliveries 2009 - 2028
Freighters 1,940 3,250 2,760 (including 2,050
converted units)


Demand by category for the 2009-2028 period
Category 2008 2028
Jumbo jets 740 220
Twin-aisle 6,700 1,510
Single-aisle 19,460 1,420
Regional jets 2,100 70
Total 29,000 3,220