The global market for PAN-based carbon fibre

(Published on December 2007 – JEC Magazine #37)

MICHEL BRISSON, MANAGING DIRECTOR, SOFICAR

We can see four distinct phases in the development of the carbonfibre market, beginning with the market’s emergence from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s. Demand for carbon fibre started in sports applications, notably fishing rods, and then spread to certain secondary aircraft parts. By the end of the 1970s, the global market represented only about 250 18 JEC Composites Magazine / No37 December 2007 The global market for PAN-based carbon fibre Trends BUSINESS metric tons (MT). In the 1980s, the market grew with the addition of new applications, mainly in the sports and leisure sector with tennis racquets and golf clubs, and in aviation with primary parts. Progress was also made in carbonfibre converting processes, with new, more successful technologies, particularly in moulding. From 1994 to 2003, industrial applications developed in high-pressure tanks, ship-building, civil engineering, and more. That period was also marked by sporadic crises in connection with the international situation (the Gulf War, 9/11) that temporarily destabilized the market without halting the general growth trend, however. From 2004 on, demand boomed as the industrial sector expanded rapidly. With the abrupt rise in oil prices, carbon fibre started to enter more and more into energy-production applications, such as wind turbines, fuel cells, and ultracentrifugation, and to play a much bigger role in the newgeneration Airbus A380, A350, and Boeing 787 aircraft, which are lighter and therefore more fuel-efficient. The global market currently represents about 34,000 MT (2007 figures).

Geographic regions

Most of the demand comes from four different geographic regions: Asia, Japan, Europe and North America, the largest consumers of carbon fibre.

The carbon-fibre market is surging in all these regions, with an average annual growth of about 14% for North America up through 2012, 12% for Europe and Japan, and 10% for Asia.

In 2007, Europe accounted for most of world demand (35%) with 11,700 MT. North America should catch up by 2009, however, thanks in particular to heavy demand in aviation linked to Boeing’s highthroughput B787 programme.

A vigorous industrial sector

For the three major areas of activity – aviation, sports, and industry – the industrial sector shows the heaviest demand (20,000 MT in 2007), although its projected annual growth from now until 2012 is lower at 13% than for aviation (16%), which continues to soar with new programmes that are heavy consumers of composites, and of carbon fibres in particular. The B787, whose first commercial flight is scheduled for 2008, is about 50% composite, and Airbus’ A350 XWB is more than 50% composite, with about 32 MT of carbon fibre scheduled for 2012-2013. The aviation market should continue its strong growth beyond 2012, as most of today’s aircraft are nearing the end of their service lives and the rate of aircraft renewal or revamping should accelerate in the years to come.

The growth of the sports and leisure industry is linked principally to the emerging demand in Asia, notably in China. A certain fringe of the Asian population (the wealthier classes in large cities) is now able to acquire consumer goods that traditionally were limited to Western countries. Another point to consider is that most of the production of such leisure equipment already migrated to Asia a number of years ago.

The strong growth of the industrial sector is being boosted by the segments that are linked to energy either in terms of production (new energies) or economy-wise with wind energy (+17%), high-pressure tanks (+21%) and automotive (+23%), for example. These segments should show the most growth from now until 2012.